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    ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES (RCL)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$164.51Last close (Jul 24, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$163.50Open (Jul 25, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-1.01(-0.61%)
    • Royal Caribbean (RCL) is experiencing strong demand with yields up 25% versus 2019 and operating at full capacity, with continued pricing power into 2025, demonstrating the ability to raise prices and improve profitability.
    • The company is successfully targeting new customer segments, including younger generations and new-to-cruise customers, through strategic deployment of new ships like Utopia and Icon, leading to exceptional demand, high customer satisfaction, and strong onboard revenue growth.
    • RCL has returned to strong financial health, achieving target leverage ratios below 3.5x debt-to-EBITDA, reinstating a quarterly dividend, and potentially pursuing additional shareholder returns, indicating a robust financial position and commitment to shareholder value.
    • Shift in Deployment Due to Underperformance in China Market: Royal Caribbean is moving the Ovation of the Seas from China to the West Coast of the U.S., indicating that the China market has not yet reached expected levels, potentially impacting growth opportunities in that region.
    • Slowing Yield Growth in the Fourth Quarter: The company's guidance reflects a 5% yield growth in Q4, showing a sequential decline that may signal bookings are slowing, which could affect future revenue growth.
    • Potential Capital Expenditures for Aging Fleet: Some ships are reaching 30-35 years of age and may need replacement, leading to significant capital expenditures that could pressure the company's financials.
    1. Q4 Yield Guidance & 2025 Bookings
      Q: Does lower Q4 yield guidance indicate slowing bookings? Any changes in 2025 bookings?
      A: Management emphasized that despite an implied 5% yield growth in Q4 , their yields for the back half of the year are up 25% versus 2019. The yield improvement is driven entirely by price as load factors are already at full capacity. For 2025, they are taking more bookings now than for 2024, with pricing up and increasing trends continuing. They feel very good about 2025, with pricing continuing to accelerate.

    2. Dividend and Shareholder Returns
      Q: Plans for shareholder returns beyond reinstated dividend?
      A: Management stated that reinstating the dividend reflects achieving their target debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.5x. Historically, they have used both dividends and share repurchases to return capital, and they expect to focus on growing both over time. They aim to maintain a competitive dividend and opportunistically buy back shares while continuing to strengthen the balance sheet.

    3. China Deployment Strategy
      Q: Does moving Ovation from China indicate weakness there?
      A: Management believes in the long-term potential of the China market and stated that Spectrum of the Seas operating out of Shanghai is performing well. However, the American market is currently stronger, leading them to deploy Ovation to California to maximize performance. This move does not indicate a shift away from China; they remain committed and plan future deployments there.

    4. Yield Management Strategy
      Q: Did you leave money on the table this year? Changes in yield strategy for next year?
      A: Management acknowledged they are 400+ basis points ahead of their initial yield expectations for the year due to accelerated demand and pricing. This suggests they may have left money on the table and were too booked going into peak booking periods. They use sophisticated revenue management tools to optimize revenue and will adjust strategies as needed to maximize yields in 2025.

    5. Margin Outlook and Growth
      Q: Where do margins go from here after exceeding 2019 levels?
      A: Management highlighted that growing yields faster than costs drives significant margin expansion. A 1% increase in yields equates to $120 million, while a 1% change in costs is about half that. They aim to continue disciplined growth, capturing more share of the $1.9 trillion vacation market, which will drive further margin and return improvements.

    6. Demand Strength and Pricing Sensitivity
      Q: Any pricing sensitivity in 2025 bookings amid land-based softness?
      A: Management is not seeing pricing sensitivity; guests are booking further out and willing to pay more. Pricing continues to increase into 2025 and 2026 across all products, including ultra-luxury. The 20% value gap compared to land-based vacations offers a competitive advantage shielding them from land-based market noise.

    7. New Ship Orders and Smaller Vessels
      Q: Are you planning longer-term orders, possibly smaller ships for new markets?
      A: Management feels confident about their growth path and is always designing next classes of ships for all brands. They consider replacing older ships reaching 30-35 years and expanding into unique destinations that require smaller vessels. The focus is less on sourcing markets and more on diversifying their global footprint across 1,000 destinations.

    8. Allocating New Ships to Short Sailings
      Q: Strategy behind assigning new hardware to short getaways vs. week-long cruises?
      A: Short cruises serve as an important on-ramp for new-to-cruise customers. Deploying ships like Utopia to short sailings has stimulated high demand and exceptional onboard revenue. They see significant upswing in repeat business from guests experiencing these ships and aim to offer experiences that cater to multiple generations.

    9. Paradise Island Positioning
      Q: How does Paradise Island differ from CocoCay?
      A: Paradise Island is positioned as another incredible Beach Club experience complementing Perfect Day at CocoCay. It's a full purchase experience with a ticket price to enter, whereas CocoCay offers many complementary experiences. The demographics are the same, and it fits well into both short and long itineraries.

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